University Economist Reports
The Migration of Young Adults To and From Arizona, November 2022
Examines a unique dataset that compares the location of those 26 years of age to their residence when they were 16 years old. Household income when the individual was 16 years old is considered.
The Impact of Arizona State University Graduates Employed in Arizona in 2021, November 2022
An update to the December 2021 paper that presented data through 2020, estimates are presented of the number of ASU graduates working in Arizona, as well as their average wage, aggregate wages, and tax payments. Estimates are made for each year from 2012 through 2021.
The Impact of Arizona State University Graduates Employed in Arizona in 2020, December 2021
An update to the November 2020 paper that presented data through 2019, estimates are presented of the number of ASU graduates working in Arizona, as well as their average wage, aggregate wages, and tax payments. Estimates are made for each year from 2012 through 2020.
2020 Census Results for Arizona: Part 1, October 2021
Discusses 2020 census counts and the change between the 2010 and 2020 decennial censuses for the nation, states, metro areas, and Arizona counties and places.
The Financing of Public Education in Arizona: 2021 Update, June 2021
Updates an August 2017 report that addressed the funding of public higher education and elementary and secondary education in Arizona, relative to the nation and other states. Expenditures of K-12 education also are updated.
The Impact of Arizona State University Graduates Employed in Arizona in 2019, November 2020
An update to the February 2020 paper that presented data through 2018, estimates are presented of the number of ASU graduates working in Arizona, as well as their average wage, aggregate wages, and tax payments. Estimates are made for each year from 2012 through 2019.
The Contribution of Arizona State University to City Economies, June 2020
Assesses the economic impact of ASU on each of five cities:
The Impact on Arizona's Economy From the Acceleration in the Number of Individuals Earning Degrees From Arizona State University After Academic Year 2003, June 2020
Compares the actual economic impact of ASU graduates working in Arizona to the impact in three hypothetical scenarios, each of which assumes the rate of growth in the number of individuals graduating from ASU was less than the actual number.
The Economic Impact of Those Attaining a Graduate Degree From Arizona State University, April 2020
Estimates the earnings of ASU graduate-degree holders worldwide, in the United States, in U.S. regions, and in Arizona.
The Impact of Arizona State University Graduates Employed in Arizona in 2018, February 2020
An update to the December 2018 paper that presented data through 2017, estimates are presented of the number of ASU graduates working in Arizona, as well as their average wage, aggregate wages, and tax payments. Estimates are made for each year from 2012 through 2018.
The Latino Population in the United States and Arizona, With an Emphasis on Education, January 2020
This paper provides a demographic profile of the Latino population in the United States and in Arizona, based primarily on the 2018 American Community Survey. It also examines demographic changes between 2010 and 2018, and simulates the economic impact of raising the educational attainment of Latinos.
The Impact of Arizona State University Graduates Employed in Arizona in 2017, December 2018
An update to the May 2018 paper that presented data through 2016, estimates are presented of the number of ASU graduates working in Arizona, as well as their average wage, aggregate wages, and tax payments. Estimates are made for each year from 2012 through 2017.
The Growing Importance of International Students at Arizona State University, November 2018
This short paper examines trends in the enrollment of international students at ASU and estimates the economic impact of these students.
An Examination of Immigration Policy Issues in the United States, August 2018
Examines several topics related to immigration, such as restrictions on legal immigration, deportations, border security, and the relationship between unauthorized immigration and crime.
The Impact of Arizona State University Graduates Employed in Arizona in 2016, May 2018
An update to the October 2016 paper that presented data through 2015, this paper estimates the number of ASU graduates working in Arizona, as well as their average wage, aggregate wages, and tax payments. Estimates are made for each year from 2012 through 2016.
Modernization of Arizona's Sales Tax, May 2018
This paper is an extension to the January 2018 paper "Options for Raising State Government Revenue in Arizona." It examines options for modernizing Arizona's sales and use taxes, primarily with the goal of ensuring that sales tax revenues keep pace with economic growth.
Options for Raising State Government Revenue in Arizona, January 2018
This paper examines a number of possible sources of additional state government revenue. By revenue source, it compares Arizona's combined state and local government finances to the nation and to other states, examines changes over time in state government finances, rates Arizona's fiscal system relative to a set of fiscal system guiding principles, and reviews the recommendations made by an Arizona citizens' group in 2003.
The Financing of Public Education in Arizona: Update, August 2017
Updates two 2016 reports that addressed the funding of public higher education and elementary and secondary education in Arizona, relative to the nation and other states. Expenditures of K-12 education also are updated.
The Social Security and Medicare Programs: Issues and Possible Solutions, February 2017
This paper examines financial and other issues facing the Social Security and Medicare programs. It discusses a wide range of options that have been proposed by numerous organizations across the political spectrum to resolve the issues. An evaluation of the proposals is not included, but an estimate of the financial impact is provided when available.
The Contribution of Arizona State University to the Arizona Economy, Fiscal Year 2016, January 2017
This report assesses the contribution of ASU to the Arizona economy based on (1) an economic impact analysis, (2) its net benefits as a provider of higher education, and (3) its research.
Tax Reductions in Arizona: Effects on Economic Growth and Government Revenue, October 2016
Provides a conceptual summary of supply-side economic theory and the Laffer Curve. Reviews the tax burden in Arizona and nearly 25 years of tax reductions passed by the Arizona Legislature. Examines the effects of these tax reductions on economic performance and public revenue.
The Impact of Arizona State University Graduates Employed in Arizona in 2015, October 2016
Estimates the number of ASU graduates working in Arizona, as well as their average wage, aggregate wages, and state tax payments. Estimates are made for each year from 2012 through 2015.
The Financing of Public Higher Education in Arizona, October 2016
Revenues for higher education in Arizona are examined by source. Comparisons to other states and the nation are included, along with a historical perspective.
The Economic Impact of the Arizona State University Research Park, 2016, September 2016
Estimates the impact of the operations of the tenants at the ASU Research Park on employment and income.
Arizona’s Income Taxes: A Comparison With Other States and a Policy Discussion of Potential Tax Reforms, July 2016
This report examines Arizona’s individual and corporate income taxes, making comparisons to other states. Conceptual issues are discussed, including the economic criteria for evaluating taxes. The link between income taxes and economic growth is explored. States without an individual income tax are compared on a number of measures to states levying a flat income tax and to states using graduated tax rates.
The Financing of Public Elementary and Secondary Education in Arizona, July 2016
Revenues for, and expenditures of, K-12 education in Arizona are examined over time and compared to other states. The analysis extends through fiscal year 2014.
Migration To and From Arizona, May 2016
Summarizes migration data from three sources: the Internal Revenue Service, the American Community Survey, and the University of Wisconsin.
A Summary of the October 2015 Special Legislative Session on Education Finance, November 2015
Summarizes the provisions of the legislation and provides context for an analysis of the provisions.
Government Revenues and Expenditures in Arizona, July 2015
Examines Arizona state government finance over time for the general fund and for the aggregation of all funds; also reviews total authorized spending. Compares Arizona to other states on combined state and local government finance. In addition, takes a more detailed look at public support, per student, for K-12 education and for higher education.
Higher Education Funding in Arizona and Utah, May 2015
Compares public support for universities and for all of higher education in Arizona and Utah. Examines various data sources and definitions of funding.
The Impact of Arizona State University Graduates Employed in Arizona, October 2014
Estimates the number of ASU graduates — by campus, residence status, and undergraduate/graduate degree — working in Arizona, as well as their average wage, aggregate wages, and state tax payments.
The Contribution of Arizona State University to the City of Phoenix Economy, Fiscal Year 2013, June 2014
This report provides an assessment of the economic contribution of Arizona State University to the city of Phoenix. The contribution of the entire university, not just the Downtown Phoenix campus, is estimated.
New Population Projections for the United States, Arizona and Arizona Counties, January 2013
Reviews population projections released in December 2012 by the U.S. Census Bureau and by the Arizona Department of Administration's Office of Employment and Population Statistics. Compares the new projections to previously released projections.
Ensuring That Arizona State Government's Budget Stabilization Fund Serves Its Purpose, June 2012
Simulates the functioning of the budget stabilization fund under differing specifications and presents recommendations to improve the operation of the fund.
2010 Census Results for Arizona, November 2011
Discusses the results of the 2010 decennial census for Arizona, with comparisons to the nation and other states, and for Arizona counties and places. Changes between 2000 and 2010 are included. In addition to the total population, the population living in households, and the population living in group quarters, the following topics are discussed: household type, race and ethnicity, age, housing units and vacancies, and homeownership. The data are available from two Excel files:
Creating Jobs in Arizona by Building and Renovating Physical Infrastructure, October 2011
Following an analysis of economic conditions, this paper examines actions that can be taken by state governments to stimulate the economy. The only action that results in a significant near-term effect is to accelerate spending on physical infrastructure that has already been identified as needed.
Capital Gains in Arizona and the Effect on State Government General Fund Revenues, July 2011
Reviews the cyclicality of capital gains and the impact of these fluctuations on general fund revenues. Includes a short-term forecast of capital gains.
Tax and Expenditure Limitation Proposals in Arizona, February 2011
Analyzes several proposals to create a new state government revenue or expenditure limit in Arizona, and compares the proposals to Colorado's TABOR.
Arizona Constitution: Specified Duties of State Government, November 2010
Functions of state government that are specified in the Arizona Constitution are examined in this paper. A decades-long history of state government funding for these functions is analyzed. Particular attention is given to education, which is discussed in the most detail in the Constitution.
Roadmap to Arizona's Economic Recovery: A Package to Create Jobs, Improve the State's Economic Competitiveness, and Balance the Budget, January 2010
A plan to balance the state government's budget in the near term and longer term, to create jobs in the near term, and to improve the state's economic competitiveness in the longer term.
- Addendum: Revenue Forecast Details, March 2010
Discusses the baseline revenue forecast used in Roadmap to Arizona's Economic Recovery: A Package to Create Jobs, Improve the State's Economic Competitiveness, and Balance the Budget.
The Contribution of Arizona State University to the Arizona Economy, Fiscal Year 2009, November 2009
An assessment of the contribution of ASU to the Arizona economy, based on the economic impact of its employment and spending, on its benefits as a provider of higher education, and on its research.
The Tax Burden in Arizona, May 2009
A review of studies that assess the tax burden by state. The tax burden of individuals is contrasted to the business tax burden.
A Summary of the Arizona State Government Fiscal Situation, March 2009
A summary of five reports -- the three volumes of Public Finance in Arizona, Education Funding in Arizona: Constitutional Requirement and the Empirical Record, and The Economic Effects of Government Spending Reductions Relative to Other Options. New and updated material are included.
Abbreviated Version of a Summary of the Arizona State Government Fiscal Situation, March 2009
Formatted as a PowerPoint presentation.
The Economic Effects of Government Spending Reductions Relative to Other Options, February 2009
Presents the results of economic modeling of the effects of spending reductions and tax increases in Arizona in order to resolve the Arizona state general fund budget deficit.
Education Funding in Arizona: Constitutional Requirement and the Empirical Record, January 2009
An examination of public funding for elementary and secondary education and higher education in Arizona from historical and interstate perspectives, in light of the funding mandate expressed in the Arizona Constitution. An evaluation of public education in Arizona is included.
A Response to the Goldwater Institute's Proposals for Closing the State Government Budget Deficit, December 2008
Illustrates the consequences of the spending reductions recommended by the Goldwater Institute to close the budget deficit, and discusses the philosophy apparently embodied in the recommendations.
Public Finance in Arizona, December 2008
A series of three reports that discuss government finance in Arizona.
- Volume I: Facts
Analyses of Arizona state government finance, using data of the Arizona Joint Legislative Budget Committee, and of the combined finances of all state and local governments within Arizona, using data of the U.S. Census Bureau. A historical perspective is provided for both datasets. For combined state and local government finance, comparisons are made to other states and to the national average. In addition, other measures of the tax burden by state are examined.
- Volume II: Concepts and Issues
Addresses the conceptual and empirical relationships between taxes, government revenue, and economic growth. Also discusses current issues specific to Arizona state government finance. This is a revised version of the report "Tax Reductions, the Economy, and the Deficit in the Arizona State Government General Fund," incorporating new and updated material.
- Volume III: Options for Managing the Arizona State General Fund
Presents options and offers recommendations for managing the Arizona state government general fund. The near-term budget deficit is addressed as well as ways to prevent budget deficits from recurring every time economic growth slows.
Tax Reductions, the Economy and the Deficit in the Arizona State Government General Fund, November 2008
The effects of the tax law changes implemented in Arizona since the early 1990s, the relationship between taxes and economic growth, and the current state government budget deficit are discussed.
The Economic Contributions of the University System, October 2008
The short-term effects of a reduction in university funding, the short-term effects of delaying the construction stimulus program, and the long-term effects of a funding reduction for the universities are examined.
Tax Law Changes in Arizona Since 1989 and the Impact on Government Revenues and Economic Growth, June 2008
Using data from the Joint Legislative Budget Committee, an analysis of the change in state government revenues and the relationship of such tax law changes and subsequent economic growth.
The Economic Impact of $1.4 Billion of University Construction Projects on the State of Arizona, February 2008
A short analysis of the benefits and costs of constructing physical infrastructure for the state's public universities using long-term debt.
Public Investment Using Debt Financing and the Effect on Economic Activity: Perspectives for the State of Arizona, January 2008
A discussion of the use of long-term debt by governments to finance long-lasting infrastructure projects, including an empirical analysis of the relationship between debt burdens and economic growth.
Changes in State Government Spending Compared to Changes in Income in Arizona Since 1990, March 2007
Using data from the Joint Legislative Budget Committee, an analysis of the change in state government expenditures and gains in income.
A Brief Analysis of Issues Associated With Debt Financing for the State of Arizona "Students First" School Capital Funding System, March 2007
Compares the existing system of financing the construction of new schools through current expenditures from the general fund with the alternative of using long-term debt financing.
Is Resident Undergraduate Instruction at Arizona State University as Nearly Free as Possible?, November 2006
An extension of the February 2006 paper on tuition and appropriations, it includes a quantitative analysis of tuition, financial aid, and income.
The Contribution of Arizona State University to the Arizona Economy, Fiscal Year 2005, May 2006
An assessment of the contribution of ASU to the Arizona economy, based on its employment and spending and also on other benefits, particularly the productivity and earnings of its graduates.
Tuition, Appropriations and Constitutional Mandates in Arizona, February 2006
An examination of university tuition levels and public support for universities by state, with consideration of constitutional requirements for tuition to be as nearly free as possible and for appropriations to be made for the maintenance and improvement of public educational institutions.
Taxpayer's Bill of Rights, February 2005
Examines efforts to limit the growth of state and local governments through tax and expenditure limitations, analyzing the effect of such a measure in Colorado, and discussing possible effects of a similar measure in Arizona.